Thank you for the excellent read, been following your coverage on the Chinese markets for a while now.
Too many people in these comments confuse the quality of a prediction with the accuracy of the expected outcome, it is the analysis behind the justification that proves quality, and you are unmatched.
I like the contrarian thesis that COVID was not the source of the market crash, but volatility. Maybe 10-20% correction should have been expected, but short volatility "fanned the flames" down to the -40% we had.
What would you estimate the combined value of the Volatility market to be? If US equities are ~$50T total MC, how much does the underlying move this "lying"?
No the GME squeeze did not end on 01/27. We must be close to MOASS because you’ve now become a paid shill. Typical shill will hide 1-2 points of FUD into an overall accurate thesis. Most shills try to hide it somewhere in the middle, but this shill just starts it off with FUD and tries to pull you back in my advocating an alternative ticker to short squeeze (in this case tickers that track volatility). Fuck your shill.
All these apes reading one sentence of a short novella and start throwing shit. Classic apeage. For those of us who read it in its entirety, bullish AF. I know which long volatility product I'm betting on.
Hard to argue this, will be burning cash on weeklies trying to catch the big fish. How are you taking precautions should the market gods force a trading hault preventing an exit... See nickle boom. Thanks.
VIX went a little lower from the time of you posting this but started an uptrend within a few weeks. Interesting to see the VIX holding these lows even while SPX is pushing into new highs. A big VIX move might be close.
Thank you for the excellent read, been following your coverage on the Chinese markets for a while now.
Too many people in these comments confuse the quality of a prediction with the accuracy of the expected outcome, it is the analysis behind the justification that proves quality, and you are unmatched.
I like the contrarian thesis that COVID was not the source of the market crash, but volatility. Maybe 10-20% correction should have been expected, but short volatility "fanned the flames" down to the -40% we had.
What would you estimate the combined value of the Volatility market to be? If US equities are ~$50T total MC, how much does the underlying move this "lying"?
Great write-up, Bear
This is some great analysis. Thanks so much making a sub-stack. This is just what we needed. Your fellow Twitter bears love you!
This was extremely interesting. Thank you
Thanks
Well written. Thanks.
great read.
Very well written, fascinating read.
Great read. I'm already on boat.
Great analysis Bear. Really appreciate your time in putting this together.
Sooo... Buy, hold and DRS $GME?
Read through it in one sitting. Loved the data backed up by math. Thanks so much.
No the GME squeeze did not end on 01/27. We must be close to MOASS because you’ve now become a paid shill. Typical shill will hide 1-2 points of FUD into an overall accurate thesis. Most shills try to hide it somewhere in the middle, but this shill just starts it off with FUD and tries to pull you back in my advocating an alternative ticker to short squeeze (in this case tickers that track volatility). Fuck your shill.
Tell me you didn't understand what you read without telling me....
All these apes reading one sentence of a short novella and start throwing shit. Classic apeage. For those of us who read it in its entirety, bullish AF. I know which long volatility product I'm betting on.
Yikes.. maybe try again without the baseless accusations and name-calling.
So spxu / sqqq? Long essentially is the point of this incredibly long-winded nonsense
moron
good one
Hard to argue this, will be burning cash on weeklies trying to catch the big fish. How are you taking precautions should the market gods force a trading hault preventing an exit... See nickle boom. Thanks.
VIX went a little lower from the time of you posting this but started an uptrend within a few weeks. Interesting to see the VIX holding these lows even while SPX is pushing into new highs. A big VIX move might be close.
Market feels suspiciously complacent.