BlackRock is a an asset manager - it doesn't invest its own money proprietarily like a bank. So certain BlackRock funds may be invested in these companies and the investors in those funds could lose out, but its not a situation where BlackRock itself has exposure.
Nice work and congrats. Here's to more little bears. A fun (speculative) future writing topic would be what you think the property endgame will be. My view is more centralization, with the government stepping to to fund completion of apartments that are half-finished. Although that's only a temporary reprieve. The ultimate dead-end for Chinese property is the high starting price-to-income valuation combined with horrible demographics this century. I'm a confident China bear always looking for disconfirming evidence. The smartest China bull I follow, David Goldman from Asia Times, argues in a July 14 piece that Xi is looking forward to short-circuiting the local government financing land sale mechanism because it has long been a competing source of money, power and influence vs that of Beijing and the CCP. It's an age-old tension between the emperor vs the provincial authorities. Link:
"Even more important, though, is the shift in the political configuration. The great migration of 600 million Chinese from countryside to city during the past forty years produced an enormous swell in real estate values, as China built the equivalent of all the cities in Europe from the Urals to the Atlantic to house the new urbanites. That produced vast amounts of wealth for property developers in China’s provinces, and the opportunity for cronyism between local officials and real estate interests.
"Beijing has wanted to rationalize government finances, funding government operations from normal tax collection and government debt issuance on the model of Western industrial countries. The property crisis instigated by Chinese regulators and intensified by the Covid epidemic gave Xi Jinping the opportunity to push through what years of committee meetings had failed to accomplish."
Congratulations! Now going to be The Last Bears Standing!
I appreciated the clarity of information about liquidity versus solvency and how it affected PRC’s economy at each level Thank you and see you in a couple weeks
Congratulations to you and the soon to be Mrs. Bear!
Phenomenal work.
Congratulations.
Congrats you and Mrs. Bear, i follow you exactly one year ago, then, everything seems not so terrible. Now it seems like doomsday.
Great content!!! Thank you for sharing your efforts! I learn something new in every one of your publications!
Fantastic piece once again! Sooner or later this planned-economy style of doing business will go kaboom.
Congratulations and wishing you and your future wife a wonderful life together filled with lots of love good health and wealth
Congrats and thanks for all the amazing analysis. Best of luck and welcome in advance to the club.
congratulations! and thanks for all the great work that you do.
Congrats. How exposed is Blackrock to al this?
BlackRock is a an asset manager - it doesn't invest its own money proprietarily like a bank. So certain BlackRock funds may be invested in these companies and the investors in those funds could lose out, but its not a situation where BlackRock itself has exposure.
I included your article in my latest list of links https://emergingmarketskeptic.substack.com/p/emerging-markets-week-july-25-2022 and might do a standalone post summarizing the recent news on the subject as this is turning into a real mess e.g. Caixin has reported that a growing number of suppliers are now unable to pay their bills because the developers are not paying them: https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F23972526-2abb-4b1f-9366-921c45e5964a_1469x980.jpeg
Nice work and congrats. Here's to more little bears. A fun (speculative) future writing topic would be what you think the property endgame will be. My view is more centralization, with the government stepping to to fund completion of apartments that are half-finished. Although that's only a temporary reprieve. The ultimate dead-end for Chinese property is the high starting price-to-income valuation combined with horrible demographics this century. I'm a confident China bear always looking for disconfirming evidence. The smartest China bull I follow, David Goldman from Asia Times, argues in a July 14 piece that Xi is looking forward to short-circuiting the local government financing land sale mechanism because it has long been a competing source of money, power and influence vs that of Beijing and the CCP. It's an age-old tension between the emperor vs the provincial authorities. Link:
https://asiatimes.com/2022/07/property-market-woes-focus-fiscal-power-in-beijing/
Quote from Mr. Goldman:
"Even more important, though, is the shift in the political configuration. The great migration of 600 million Chinese from countryside to city during the past forty years produced an enormous swell in real estate values, as China built the equivalent of all the cities in Europe from the Urals to the Atlantic to house the new urbanites. That produced vast amounts of wealth for property developers in China’s provinces, and the opportunity for cronyism between local officials and real estate interests.
"Beijing has wanted to rationalize government finances, funding government operations from normal tax collection and government debt issuance on the model of Western industrial countries. The property crisis instigated by Chinese regulators and intensified by the Covid epidemic gave Xi Jinping the opportunity to push through what years of committee meetings had failed to accomplish."
Congrats 👏 on publishing another stellar analysis. Wish you all the happiness even after marriage 💑 hope you remain sharp
Congratulations! Now going to be The Last Bears Standing!
I appreciated the clarity of information about liquidity versus solvency and how it affected PRC’s economy at each level Thank you and see you in a couple weeks
Congrats! More bears will stand!
Congratulations! You have to get married: you can’t be happy all your life….